Weather Predicting...the old fashioned way

The Annapolis Book of Seamanship states “Clouds are the faces of weather”. In fact, they dedicate a section of their Weather chapter to reading clouds and another to reading the wind. As sailors, we rely on weather forecasts heavily, but we certainly take heed of clouds, winds and what the sky tells us, as well. There are all sorts of old seafarers' sayings that are good indicators of weather to come. One, in particular, I remember from my childhood and it is probably the best known of all ...“Red sky at night, sailor's delight. Red sky in morning, sailor take warning.”

It makes sense. As the sun is setting in the west, the sky becomes red when light passes through dust particles in the air. Dust is a sign of dry weather and since most weather comes from the west, a red sky at night indicates fair weather on the horizon. A grey sky at night indicates moisture in the air and rain is in the forecast. A red sky in morning signals that the dry air has moved away … also a signal of rain. Interestingly enough, even Jesus talks to his fishermen friends about this very phenomenon in Matthew 16.2-3: "When it is evening, you say, 'It will be fair weather, for the sky is red.' and in the morning 'It will be stormy today, for the sky is red and threatening." I'd say this old saying has some merit.

Then there's "Mare's tails, mare's tail make lofty ships carry low sails." These thin, wispy, high cirrus clouds called mare's tails arrive a day or two in advance of frontal systems … usually wind and rain. We definitely take note and check the weather forecasts. We know a change is on the way.

“Mackerel scales, furl your sails.” A mackerel sky does, indeed, look scaly. These puffy clouds under cirrocumulus clouds often precede an advancing warm front …  backing winds and rain.

There are several sayings about rainbows and weather, such as ... “Rainbow in the morning, gives you fair warning.” The sun rises in the east. If the associated rain that caused the rainbow is in the west, rain is coming your way.

Predicting a squall is usually pretty easy. When we see dark clouds approaching and actually see the showers, we're pretty sure rain is imminent. The darker the clouds, the more violent the squall will be. We learned from the following maxim, that wind before the rain is better than rain before the wind. Shallow fronts pass quickly with rain on the backside. Deeper fronts and big depressions, however, are surrounded by bad weather and the rain usually precedes the big winds. Lucky for us no topsails … we just take a reef in the main.

When the wind before the rain Let your topsails draw again; When the rain before the wind, Topsail sheets and halyards mind.

There are no sayings I'm aware of that are associated with rare roll clouds. According to Wiki, these are arcus clouds, low and horizontal tubes in the sky usually formed by outflows of cold air from sea breezes or cold fronts in the absence of thunderstorms. We've only seen them once, while crossing the Great Australian Bight,and that was enough for us. They were ominous looking on approach and each cloud (there were about eight of them in a row) brought severe squalls with several minutes of gale force winds. Not something predictable although if we saw them again, we'd know what to expect.

Like roll clouds, waterspouts (funnel clouds on water) are not predictable nor pleasant especially since they're usually associated with torrential downpours and thunder and lightning. Fascinating though.

Of course, not all clouds are associated with weather … some just amuse us. Like the letter “L” for Lynn or Lucky.

or Nine of Cups … you're #1!  

When Neptune Doesn't Cooperate

We've been ready to leave for a couple of days now. All the essential boat chores and repairs were done. We'd seen pretty much everything we wanted to see on the island. The boat's ready. We're ready. BUT Neptune is not ready and therein lies the problem. There is no wind. Not even a little bit of a breeze is forecast for the next few days. Okay, I'm exaggerating … 3kts with gusts to 4kts. This is not good news for a sailboat.  

Delays are always an issue for sailors. We get psyched up to leave and then we wait, and wait, and wait. The frustration level grows and that's when many folks make mistakes. They get tired of the endless waiting for a reasonable forecast and they just take off. Some have schedules to meet; others just can't handle the waiting game. There are not many boats left in the marina. It's definitely time to go, but we've certainly learned the hard way that patience invariably pays off. It's just not easy.

The delay has also posed another issue for us. Mauritius granted us a 14-day visa when we arrived. Our 14 days is near expiration and these couple of days delay will require a short extension to the visa. If we're lucky, we'll either get a free extension for a couple of days OR the forecast will change a bit.

So … what to do while we're waiting. We're down to the B-list places to visit, too. We take walks in the morning just to get out and exercise as long as we can. We've visited the free Seashell Museum, upstairs from the Mikado jewelry store. It's a one-room affair with a pretty good display of seashells actually. We did find out that one particular species of harp shell (harpa costata) is native to the Mauritian waters. This carnivorous gastropod (think sea snail) has the ability to self-amputate a part of its foot, kind of like some lizard can do with their tails. Even after wowing about this new tidbit of information, we made it through the museum in about 15 minutes.

We decided to buy a few souvenirs from the crafts market rather than the retail stores along the waterfront. Many of the reasons we liked Mauritius when we first arrived are the very same things that are driving us crazy now. The heat and crowds and closeness of the market and the accompanying stench of rotting produce and human sweat about knocked us over. We climbed the stairs to the souvenir vendors and walked the gauntlet to a fellow who sold t-shirts we liked. We wanted one. “Look, a kasmir/pashmina scarf for you, madame.” “No, thanks, just a t-shirt.” “Look, madame, a fine table runner for your table.” “No, thanks, really, just a t-shirt.” “Spices, madame, every women needs spices for her cooking.” “No, thanks ….” Bargaining is part of the game here and David's good at it. I just walk away and let him do his thing. We got the t-shirt (and only the t-shirt) for a reasonable price, but it was hard work.

We've been writing up a storm. We're ahead on some blogs for Gentry to post while we're at sea and David is working on a couple of articles he promised to Good Old Boat. I'm working on an article for SSCA and another for Cruising Helmsman. The website needs updating. There's enough to keep us busy if we're ambitious enough.

So … what do we do when Neptune doesn't cooperate? We busy ourselves the best we can. In the past we've waited up to two weeks or more for a weather window. Don't fret if there's nothing you can do to change things. We try to remain patient ... and we wait.

Another day...or two...in Two Rocks

The swell was up, but it was sunny and the wind was southerly. We thought we might leave, but then we saw huge combers breaking over the sea wall quite regularly. We walked up the hill to get a better view of the marina entrance … oh, man, it didn't look good at all. Breakers were making their way around and over the reefs and pounding the breakwater and shore. We watched as several large waves broke at the harbor entrance.  

We decided to ask a local crayfisherman and get his take on the situation. The cray boats go out everyday, no matter what the weather. The Alba Marina III had just come in. We asked the captain for his recommendation and I quote … “You'd be fucking crazy to go out in that today. I haven't seen it this bad in two years. We had to go five miles south to find a clear way in through the reefs.” He further explained that if we could do 24 knots like he does, there would be no problem since we could outrun the waves. 24 knots … not in our wildest dreams. However, we'd be running into them and not surfing down them and getting turned around, knocked beam-to the wave and broached seemed a real possibility.

The forecast shows similar swells for the next couple of days and northerly winds, perhaps settling down over the weekend. We may be here for a few more days. Get used to it. Patience and prudence are a big part of the cruising life. We'll figure out how to make lemons into lemonade in the next few days … I've got plenty of sugar aboard.